Eibar vs Almeria — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Eibar the pick at 43% for Eibar vs Almeria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Eibar host Almeria on 31 October 2026 at Ipurua Municipal Stadium, Eibar. Eibar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 12 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Eibar - Almeria. Kick-off is 15:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Eibar: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 14 conceded in 21 matches, 1.29 and 0.67 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Almeria: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 40 conceded in 25 matches, 2.0 and 1.6 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Eibar | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +7 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWW | WDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 13 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 21 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.29 / 0.67 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.86 | 1.84 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.1 | 71.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Eibar 50.1 versus Almeria 71.6, a gap of 21.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Eibar's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Eibar at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Almeria's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Eibar's way, especially at Ipurua Municipal Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Eibar or Almeria?
Eibar, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Eibar, 24% the draw and 33% Almeria.
When and where is Eibar vs Almeria being played?
31 October 2026 at Ipurua Municipal Stadium, Eibar, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Eibar and Almeria?
Eibar 1-0 Almeria on 25 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Eibar and Almeria?
Eibar have taken 7 points from their last five (LDLWW), Almeria 13 from theirs (WDWWW). Most recently Eibar took a 0-2 defeat away at Cordoba and Almeria a 2-1 win away at Castellonense.
How many goals are expected in Eibar vs Almeria?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 2.00 for Eibar and 2.80 for Almeria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.