Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II match summary and prediction — Segunda División
Our model makes Burgos the pick at 66% for Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Burgos face Celta de Vigo II on 7 November 2026. Burgos are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 66%. This matchday 13 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Burgos - Celta de Vigo II. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Burgos: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored nine and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +4.
Celta de Vigo II: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored ten and conceded twelve, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.4 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Burgos | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWL | DLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 10 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.3 | 40.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 66% | 14% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Burgos 49.3 versus Celta de Vigo II 40.4, a gap of 8.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.65, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Burgos' way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Burgos at 66%, a gap of 46 percentage points to the next outcome. Burgos' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burgos or Celta de Vigo II?
Burgos, with an implied win probability of roughly 66%. The full split is 66% Burgos, 20% the draw and 14% Celta de Vigo II.
When and where is Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II being played?
7 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Burgos and Celta de Vigo II met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Burgos and Celta de Vigo II?
Burgos have taken 10 points from their last five (DWWWL), Celta de Vigo II 5 from theirs (DLDWL). Most recently Burgos took a 1-1 draw at home to Castellón and Celta de Vigo II a 2-2 draw at home to Cordoba.
How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.65 — 2.40 for Burgos and 1.25 for Celta de Vigo II. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.