Girona vs Almeria: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Girona the pick at 50% for Girona vs Almeria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Girona face Almeria on 8 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona. Girona are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 13 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Girona - Almeria. Kick-off is 15:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Girona: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 50 conceded in 34 matches, 0.97 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.4 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +11.
Almeria: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 40 conceded in 25 matches, 2.0 and 1.6 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.9 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Girona | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +11 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWD | DWDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 3 | 12 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 34 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.97 / 1.47 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.03 | 1.84 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 54.4 | 64.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 26% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Girona two wins, Almeria one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Almeria 0-0 Girona on 14 January 2024.
- Head-to-head goals: 5.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Girona 54.4 versus Almeria 64.9, a gap of 10.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Girona's way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to Girona at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Girona's way, especially at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Girona or Almeria?
Girona, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Girona, 25% the draw and 26% Almeria.
When and where is Girona vs Almeria being played?
8 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Girona and Almeria?
Almeria 0-0 Girona on 14 January 2024.
What is the recent form of Girona and Almeria?
Girona have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWWD), Almeria 11 from theirs (DWDWW). Most recently Girona took a 0-1 defeat away at Real Sociedad II and Almeria a 1-1 draw away at Eibar.
How many goals are expected in Girona vs Almeria?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 2.00 for Girona and 2.40 for Almeria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.