Leganes vs Burgos match summary and prediction — Segunda División
Our model makes Burgos the pick at 47% for Leganes vs Burgos. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Leganes face Burgos on 13 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes. Burgos are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 14 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Leganes - Burgos. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Leganes: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 28 conceded in 20 matches, 1.0 and 1.4 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -12.
Burgos: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 16 conceded in 23 matches, 1.17 and 0.7 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Leganes | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -12 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | WDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 12 | 11 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.17 / 0.7 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.0 | 1.91 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.3 | 59.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 47% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Leganes 25.3 versus Burgos 59.6, a gap of 34.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Burgos' way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Burgos at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Burgos' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Leganes or Burgos?
Burgos, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 31% Leganes, 22% the draw and 47% Burgos.
When and where is Leganes vs Burgos being played?
13 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Leganes and Burgos?
Burgos 2-1 Leganes on 31 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Leganes and Burgos?
Leganes have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Burgos 13 from theirs (WDWWW). Most recently Leganes took a 1-3 defeat at home to Albacete and Burgos a 2-1 win at home to Celta de Vigo II.
How many goals are expected in Leganes vs Burgos?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.00 for Leganes and 2.20 for Burgos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.