Valladolid vs Castellón: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Castellón the pick at 53% for Valladolid vs Castellón. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Castellón travel to Valladolid on 14 November 2026. Castellón are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 14 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Valladolid - Castellón. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Valladolid: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 36 conceded in 21 matches, 0.9 and 1.71 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +2.
Castellón: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins before that. That is three wins, one draw and no defeats from the last four, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.7 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +18.
Side by side
| Statistic | Valladolid | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +2 | +18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLL | DWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 9 | 11 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 21 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.9 / 1.71 | 1.7 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.86 | 1.52 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.5 | 56.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 53% |
Key match insights
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Castellón's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Castellón at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Valladolid or Castellón?
Castellón, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 27% Valladolid, 20% the draw and 53% Castellón.
When and where is Valladolid vs Castellón being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Valladolid and Castellón?
Valladolid 0-4 Castellón on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Valladolid and Castellón?
Valladolid have taken 9 points from their last five (WWWLL), Castellón 10 from theirs (DWWW). Most recently Valladolid took a 2-1 win away at Sporting Gijon and Castellón a 1-1 draw away at Burgos.
How many goals are expected in Valladolid vs Castellón?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.80 for Valladolid and 2.40 for Castellón. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.