Alaves vs Valencia match summary and prediction — La Liga
Valencia travel to Alaves needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 20th and winless in five. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
Alaves face Valencia on 15 September 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. Alaves are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 6 fixture in La Liga is listed as Alaves - Valencia. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Alaves: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 54 conceded in 38 matches, 1.26 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +7.
Valencia: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 55 conceded in 36 matches, 1.22 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.3 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -8. For a club of Valencia's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Alaves | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 20th |
| Goal difference | +7 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWD | LLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 4 | 1 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 38 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.26 / 1.42 | 1.22 / 1.53 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.26 | 1.19 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.1 | 26.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 10% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 3 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Alaves three wins, Valencia one win, two draws — an edge to Alaves.
- Most recent meeting: Valencia 3-2 Alaves on 08 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Alaves 60.1 versus Valencia 26.3, a gap of 33.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Valencia are 20th with a goal difference of -8 and winless in five — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: 18 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 14% and both teams to score at 38%.
- First goal: Leans Alaves' way at 70%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Alaves at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Alaves' form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Alaves's way, especially at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alaves or Valencia?
Alaves, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Alaves, 38% the draw and 10% Valencia.
When and where is Alaves vs Valencia being played?
15 September 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Alaves and Valencia?
Valencia 3-2 Alaves on 08 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Alaves and Valencia?
Alaves have taken 11 points from their last five (WWDWD), Valencia 1 from theirs (LLLDL). Most recently Alaves took a 5-2 win at home to Osasuna and Valencia a 0-5 defeat at home to Barcelona.
How many goals are expected in Alaves vs Valencia?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.40 for Alaves and 1.20 for Valencia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 14%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 38%, so its call is no.