Alaves vs Malaga: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Alaves the pick at 59% for Alaves vs Malaga. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Alaves host Malaga on 23 October 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. Alaves are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This matchday 10 fixture in La Liga is listed as Alaves - Malaga. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Alaves: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 54 conceded in 38 matches, 1.26 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.1 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +3.
Malaga: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 28 conceded in 22 matches, 2.09 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.7 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -12.
Side by side
| Statistic | Alaves | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 20th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | LDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 5 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 38 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.26 / 1.42 | 2.09 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.26 | 1.91 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.1 | 28.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 8% |
Key match insights
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams to score at 36%.
- First goal: Leans Alaves' way at 73%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Alaves at 59%, a gap of 25 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Alaves's way, especially at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alaves or Malaga?
Alaves, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Alaves, 34% the draw and 8% Malaga.
When and where is Alaves vs Malaga being played?
23 October 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Alaves and Malaga met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Alaves and Malaga?
Alaves have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Malaga 2 from theirs (LDLLD). Most recently Alaves took a 1-2 defeat away at Celta Vigo and Malaga a 2-5 defeat at home to Real Sociedad.
How many goals are expected in Alaves vs Malaga?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.40 for Alaves and 1.40 for Malaga. It rates over 2.5 goals at 22%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 36%, so its call is no.