Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Atletico Madrid the pick at 73% for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Atletico Madrid host Deportivo La Coruna on 24 October 2026 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid. Atletico Madrid are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 73%. This matchday 10 fixture in La Liga is listed as Atletico Madrid - Deportivo La Coruna. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Atletico Madrid: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (126 scored and 89 conceded in 64 matches, 1.97 and 1.39 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
Deportivo La Coruna: they come in on the back of a draw, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 17 conceded in 20 matches, 1.3 and 0.85 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Atletico Madrid | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 9th |
| Goal difference | +11 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWW | DLLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 3 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 64 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.97 / 1.39 | 1.3 / 0.85 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.78 | 1.9 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 77.8 | 35.2 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 73% | 12% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Atletico Madrid 77.8 versus Deportivo La Coruna 35.2, a gap of 42.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Deportivo La Coruna carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Atletico Madrid's way at 74%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Atletico Madrid at 73%, a gap of 58 percentage points to the next outcome. Atletico Madrid's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atletico Madrid's way, especially at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atletico Madrid or Deportivo La Coruna?
Atletico Madrid, with an implied win probability of roughly 73%. The full split is 73% Atletico Madrid, 15% the draw and 12% Deportivo La Coruna.
When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna being played?
24 October 2026 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna?
Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Atletico Madrid on 13 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna?
Atletico Madrid have taken 13 points from their last five (DWWWW), Deportivo La Coruna 3 from theirs (DLLDD). Most recently Atletico Madrid took a 1-1 draw away at VfB Stuttgart and Deportivo La Coruna a 1-1 draw at home to Levante.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.20 for Atletico Madrid and 1.80 for Deportivo La Coruna. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Atletico Madrid and ten for Deportivo La Coruna at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.