Rayo Vallecano vs Elche — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano the pick at 57% for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Elche travel to Rayo Vallecano on 24 October 2026 at Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid. Rayo Vallecano are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 10 fixture in La Liga is listed as Rayo Vallecano - Elche. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Rayo Vallecano: they come in on three successive draws, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 47 conceded in 42 matches, 1.19 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.4 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -5.
Elche: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (47 scored and 55 conceded in 38 matches, 1.24 and 1.45 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.5 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rayo Vallecano | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -5 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDWL | DDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 42 | 38 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.19 / 1.12 | 1.24 / 1.45 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.43 | 1.16 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.4 | 43.5 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 18% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Rayo Vallecano two wins, Elche two wins, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche on 03 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Rayo Vallecano 40.4 versus Elche 43.5, a gap of 3.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Rayo Vallecano carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Rayo Vallecano's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Rayo Vallecano at 57%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. Elche's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rayo Vallecano's way, especially at Estadio de Vallecas.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rayo Vallecano or Elche?
Rayo Vallecano, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Rayo Vallecano, 25% the draw and 18% Elche.
When and where is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Rayo Vallecano and Elche?
Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche on 03 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Rayo Vallecano and Elche?
Rayo Vallecano have taken 6 points from their last five (DDDWL), Elche 6 from theirs (DDWLD). Most recently Rayo Vallecano took a 1-1 draw away at Getafe and Elche a 0-0 draw away at Villarreal.
How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.60 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.40 for Elche. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Rayo Vallecano and two for Elche at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.