Valencia vs Villarreal — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Valencia host Villarreal with a season still short of where it should be — 19th in La Liga and three games without a win. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Valencia face Villarreal on 24 October 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. Villarreal are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 10 fixture in La Liga is listed as Valencia - Villarreal. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Valencia: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 55 conceded in 36 matches, 1.22 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.4 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -9. For a club of Valencia's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Villarreal: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (80 scored and 76 conceded in 51 matches, 1.57 and 1.49 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of 0. For a club of Villarreal's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Side by side
| Statistic | Valencia | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -9 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLWL | LDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 9 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 36 | 51 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.22 / 1.53 | 1.57 / 1.49 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.19 | 1.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.4 | 48.3 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 30% | 42% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 1 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Valencia one win, Villarreal three wins, three draws — an edge to Villarreal.
- Most recent meeting: Valencia 0-2 Villarreal on 25 October 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.29 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Valencia 39.4 versus Villarreal 48.3, a gap of 8.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Valencia are 19th with a goal difference of -9 and three games without a win — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: Valencia carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Villarreal's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Villarreal at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Valencia or Villarreal?
Villarreal, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 30% Valencia, 27% the draw and 42% Villarreal.
When and where is Valencia vs Villarreal being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Valencia and Villarreal?
Valencia 0-2 Villarreal on 25 October 2025.
What is the recent form of Valencia and Villarreal?
Valencia have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLWL), Villarreal 7 from theirs (LDWLW). Most recently Valencia took a 0-0 draw at home to Athletic Club and Villarreal a 3-4 defeat away at Liverpool.
How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Villarreal?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.60 for Valencia and 2.00 for Villarreal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Valencia and two for Villarreal at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.