Elche vs Valencia match summary and prediction — La Liga
Valencia travel to Elche needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 19th and winless in four. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Valencia travel to Elche on 1 November 2026 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche. Elche are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 11 fixture in La Liga is listed as Elche - Valencia. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Elche: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (47 scored and 55 conceded in 38 matches, 1.24 and 1.45 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.9 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -3.
Valencia: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 55 conceded in 36 matches, 1.22 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.2 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -10. For a club of Valencia's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Elche | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 19th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDDW | LDDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 2 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 38 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.24 / 1.45 | 1.22 / 1.53 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.16 | 1.19 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.9 | 39.2 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Elche one win, Valencia one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Elche 1-0 Valencia on 11 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Elche 50.9 versus Valencia 39.2, a gap of 11.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Valencia are 19th with a goal difference of -10 and winless in four — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: Valencia carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Elche's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards Elche at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Elche's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Elche's way, especially at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Elche or Valencia?
Elche, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Elche, 28% the draw and 29% Valencia.
When and where is Elche vs Valencia being played?
1 November 2026 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Elche and Valencia?
Elche 1-0 Valencia on 11 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Elche and Valencia?
Elche have taken 11 points from their last five (WWDDW), Valencia 5 from theirs (LDDLW). Most recently Elche took a 3-1 win away at Pinatar and Valencia a 1-2 defeat at home to Villarreal.
How many goals are expected in Elche vs Valencia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.80 for Elche and 1.00 for Valencia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for Elche and ten for Valencia at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.