Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano the pick at 49% for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Celta Vigo travel to Rayo Vallecano on 31 October 2026 at Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid. Rayo Vallecano are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 11 fixture in La Liga is listed as Rayo Vallecano - Celta Vigo. Kick-off is 15:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Rayo Vallecano: they come in on the back of a win, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 47 conceded in 42 matches, 1.19 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -8.
Celta Vigo: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (68 scored and 65 conceded in 48 matches, 1.42 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rayo Vallecano | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -8 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDDD | DWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 5 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 42 | 48 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.19 / 1.12 | 1.42 / 1.35 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.43 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.7 | 55.8 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Rayo Vallecano one win, Celta Vigo one win, four draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta Vigo on 21 September 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Rayo Vallecano 39.7 versus Celta Vigo 55.8, a gap of 16.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Rayo Vallecano's way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to Rayo Vallecano at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Rayo Vallecano's way, especially at Estadio de Vallecas.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rayo Vallecano or Celta Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Rayo Vallecano, 22% the draw and 29% Celta Vigo.
When and where is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo being played?
31 October 2026 at Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta Vigo on 21 September 2025.
What is the recent form of Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano have taken 6 points from their last five (WLDDD), Celta Vigo 8 from theirs (DWWLD). Most recently Rayo Vallecano took a 3-2 win away at Recreativo Huelva and Celta Vigo a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis.
How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.20 for Celta Vigo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Rayo Vallecano and ten for Celta Vigo at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.