Malaga vs Racing Santander: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Malaga the pick at 45% for Malaga vs Racing Santander. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Malaga face Racing Santander on 7 November 2026 at Estadio La Rosaleda. Malaga are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 12 fixture in La Liga is listed as Malaga - Racing Santander. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Malaga: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 28 conceded in 22 matches, 2.09 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.4 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -13.
Racing Santander: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 32 conceded in 21 matches, 2.1 and 1.52 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | Malaga | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 16th |
| Goal difference | -13 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLD | LWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 22 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.09 / 1.27 | 2.1 / 1.52 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.91 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.4 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Malaga 28.4 versus Racing Santander 34.8, a gap of 6.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Malaga's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Malaga at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Malaga's way, especially at Estadio La Rosaleda.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Malaga or Racing Santander?
Malaga, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Malaga, 25% the draw and 30% Racing Santander.
When and where is Malaga vs Racing Santander being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio La Rosaleda, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Malaga and Racing Santander?
Malaga 1-1 Racing Santander on 24 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Malaga and Racing Santander?
Malaga have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDLD), Racing Santander 7 from theirs (LWWLD). Most recently Malaga took a 1-2 defeat away at Real Betis and Racing Santander a 0-3 defeat at home to Real Madrid.
How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Racing Santander?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.00 for Malaga and 1.20 for Racing Santander. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.