Osasuna vs Athletic Club match summary and prediction — La Liga
Our model makes Athletic Club the pick at 49% for Osasuna vs Athletic Club. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Athletic Club travel to Osasuna on 7 November 2026 at Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona. Athletic Club are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 12 fixture in La Liga is listed as Osasuna - Athletic Club. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Osasuna: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (42 scored and 48 conceded in 35 matches, 1.2 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.6 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -11.
Athletic Club: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (58 scored and 88 conceded in 55 matches, 1.05 and 1.6 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -11 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWL | WWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 9 | 13 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 35 | 55 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.2 / 1.37 | 1.05 / 1.6 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.6 | 52.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 49% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 1 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Osasuna one win, Athletic Club three wins, four draws — an edge to Athletic Club.
- Most recent meeting: Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna on 21 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the eight — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Osasuna 35.6 versus Athletic Club 52.7, a gap of 17.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Athletic Club's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Athletic Club at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Osasuna or Athletic Club?
Athletic Club, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 27% Osasuna, 24% the draw and 49% Athletic Club.
When and where is Osasuna vs Athletic Club being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna on 21 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Osasuna and Athletic Club?
Osasuna have taken 6 points from their last five (LWLWL), Athletic Club 10 from theirs (WWWLD). Most recently Osasuna took a 1-2 defeat away at Deportivo La Coruna and Athletic Club a 2-1 win at home to Real Sociedad.
How many goals are expected in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.00 for Osasuna and 2.80 for Athletic Club. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.