Sevilla vs Alaves: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Sevilla the pick at 43% for Sevilla vs Alaves. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Alaves travel to Sevilla on 6 November 2026. Sevilla are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 12 fixture in La Liga is listed as Sevilla - Alaves. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Sevilla: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 50 conceded in 33 matches, 1.21 and 1.52 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -2.
Alaves: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 54 conceded in 38 matches, 1.26 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sevilla | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLD | LDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 10 | 4 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 33 | 38 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.21 / 1.52 | 1.26 / 1.42 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.15 | 1.26 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.8 | 31.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 25% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 1 | 4 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Sevilla one win, Alaves four wins, two draws — an edge to Alaves.
- Most recent meeting: Sevilla 1-1 Alaves on 14 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.29 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in six of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sevilla 37.8 versus Alaves 31.2, a gap of 6.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Sevilla's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Sevilla at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sevilla or Alaves?
Sevilla, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Sevilla, 32% the draw and 25% Alaves.
When and where is Sevilla vs Alaves being played?
6 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sevilla and Alaves?
Sevilla 1-1 Alaves on 14 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Sevilla and Alaves?
Sevilla have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWLD), Alaves 2 from theirs (LDLLD). Most recently Sevilla took a 1-3 defeat away at Getafe and Alaves a 1-6 defeat away at Barcelona.
How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Alaves?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Sevilla and 0.80 for Alaves. It rates over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.