Valencia vs Real Madrid — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Valencia host Real Madrid with a season still short of where it should be — 19th in La Liga and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Real Madrid travel to Valencia on 7 November 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia. Real Madrid are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This matchday 12 fixture in La Liga is listed as Valencia - Real Madrid. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Valencia: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 55 conceded in 36 matches, 1.22 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.4 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -9. For a club of Valencia's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Real Madrid: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (121 scored and 67 conceded in 58 matches, 2.09 and 1.16 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +18.
Side by side
| Statistic | Valencia | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -9 | +18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDDL | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 17 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 36 | 58 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.22 / 1.53 | 2.09 / 1.16 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.19 | 2.1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.4 | 69.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 12% | 70% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 2 | 5 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Valencia two wins, Real Madrid five wins, one draw — an edge to Real Madrid.
- Most recent meeting: Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid on 08 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.12 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Valencia 39.4 versus Real Madrid 69.5, a gap of 30.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Valencia are 19th with a goal difference of -9 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: 16 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Real Madrid's way at 68%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Real Madrid at 70%, a gap of 52 percentage points to the next outcome. Real Madrid's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Valencia or Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 12% Valencia, 18% the draw and 70% Real Madrid.
When and where is Valencia vs Real Madrid being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Valencia and Real Madrid?
Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Valencia and Real Madrid?
Valencia have taken 5 points from their last five (WLDDL), Real Madrid 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Valencia took a 1-0 win away at Elche and Real Madrid a 3-0 win away at Racing Santander.
How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 0.60 for Valencia and 3.20 for Real Madrid. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.