RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV: match summary, form and prediction

RB Leipzig host Hamburger SV with a season still short of where it should be — 8th in Bundesliga and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.

The fixture at a glance

RB Leipzig host Hamburger SV on 13 September 2026 at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. RB Leipzig are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 3 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.

Recent form and trajectory

RB Leipzig: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 38 conceded in 30 matches, 2.0 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1. For a club of RB Leipzig's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.

Hamburger SV: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 50 conceded in 30 matches, 1.2 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 23.2 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -7.

Side by side

What stands out

• Pre-match form ratings: RB Leipzig 35.2 versus Hamburger SV 23.2, a gap of 12.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
• Big club, bad season: RB Leipzig are 8th with a goal difference of +1 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
• Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
• Availability: Hamburger SV carry the heavier absentee list, eight players to four.
• Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.80, over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 52%.
• First goal: Leans RB Leipzig's way at 66%.

Sentiment and prediction

The model leans firmly towards RB Leipzig at 57%, a gap of 22 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts RB Leipzig's way, especially at Red Bull Arena.

This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured to win the match: RB Leipzig or Hamburger SV?

RB Leipzig, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% RB Leipzig, 35% the draw and 8% Hamburger SV.

When and where is RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV being played?

13 September 2026 at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, kick-off 13:30 UTC.

What was the result of the last match between RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV?

RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SV on 18 October 2025.

What is the recent form of RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV?

RB Leipzig have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), Hamburger SV 7 from theirs (LLWWD). Most recently RB Leipzig took a 1-4 defeat away at Como and Hamburger SV a 0-5 defeat at home to FSV Mainz 05.

How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?

The model's combined scoring line is 0.80 — 0.60 for RB Leipzig and 0.20 for Hamburger SV. It rates over 2.5 goals at 19%.

Will both teams score?

The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.

Who is unavailable?

Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for RB Leipzig and eight for Hamburger SV at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.