Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the pick at 66% for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
RB Leipzig travel to Bayer Leverkusen on 20 September 2026 at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 66%. This matchday 4 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bayer Leverkusen: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (93 scored and 74 conceded in 51 matches, 1.82 and 1.45 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +3.
RB Leipzig: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 38 conceded in 30 matches, 2.0 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +3 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWW | WLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 6 | 16 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 51 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.82 / 1.45 | 2.0 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.67 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.1 | 46.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 66% | 6% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 4 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Bayer Leverkusen four wins, RB Leipzig two wins, one draw — an edge to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Most recent meeting: Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig on 02 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bayer Leverkusen 39.1 versus RB Leipzig 46.5, a gap of 7.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Bayer Leverkusen's way at 68%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Bayer Leverkusen at 66%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Bayer Leverkusen's way, especially at BayArena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bayer Leverkusen or RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen, with an implied win probability of roughly 66%. The full split is 66% Bayer Leverkusen, 28% the draw and 6% RB Leipzig.
When and where is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig being played?
20 September 2026 at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen have taken 10 points from their last five (DWLWW), RB Leipzig 9 from theirs (WLLWW). Most recently Bayer Leverkusen took a 2-2 draw away at FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig a 5-0 win at home to Hamburger SV.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.20 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.60 for RB Leipzig. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.