Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt: match summary, form and prediction
Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Borussia Dortmund needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 11th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Borussia Dortmund host Eintracht Frankfurt on 24 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 71%. This matchday 7 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Borussia Dortmund: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (102 scored and 63 conceded in 46 matches, 2.22 and 1.37 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.4 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +7.
Eintracht Frankfurt: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (70 scored and 94 conceded in 43 matches, 1.63 and 2.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -6. For a club of Eintracht Frankfurt's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Side by side
| Statistic | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 11th |
| Goal difference | +7 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLDW | WLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 46 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.22 / 1.37 | 1.63 / 2.19 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.87 | 1.07 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.4 | 46.8 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 71% | 12% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 4 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Borussia Dortmund four wins, Eintracht Frankfurt one win, two draws — an edge to Borussia Dortmund.
- Most recent meeting: Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3 Borussia Dortmund on 09 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.86 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Borussia Dortmund 63.4 versus Eintracht Frankfurt 46.8, a gap of 16.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Eintracht Frankfurt are 11th with a goal difference of -6 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Borussia Dortmund's way at 71%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Borussia Dortmund at 71%, a gap of 53 percentage points to the next outcome. Borussia Dortmund's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Borussia Dortmund's way, especially at Signal Iduna Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.