RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg: the numbers, the form and our prediction
RB Leipzig host SV Elversberg with a season still short of where it should be — 7th in Bundesliga and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
RB Leipzig host SV Elversberg on 24 October 2026 at Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. RB Leipzig are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 71%. This matchday 7 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as RB Leipzig - SV Elversberg. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
RB Leipzig: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 38 conceded in 30 matches, 2.0 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.2 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +5. For a club of RB Leipzig's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
SV Elversberg: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 22 conceded in 17 matches, 1.88 and 1.29 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | RB Leipzig | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 6th |
| Goal difference | +5 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWL | WLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 12 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 30 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.0 / 1.27 | 1.88 / 1.29 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.0 | 1.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.2 | 48.6 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 71% | 12% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: RB Leipzig 46.2 versus SV Elversberg 48.6, a gap of 2.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: RB Leipzig are 7th with a goal difference of +5 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: SV Elversberg carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans RB Leipzig's way at 70%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards RB Leipzig at 71%, a gap of 54 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts RB Leipzig's way, especially at Leipzig Red Bull Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: RB Leipzig or SV Elversberg?
RB Leipzig, with an implied win probability of roughly 71%. The full split is 71% RB Leipzig, 17% the draw and 12% SV Elversberg.
When and where is RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg being played?
24 October 2026 at Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Have RB Leipzig and SV Elversberg met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of RB Leipzig and SV Elversberg?
RB Leipzig have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), SV Elversberg 4 from theirs (WLLDL). Most recently RB Leipzig took a 1-4 defeat away at Real Madrid and SV Elversberg a 4-3 win at home to FC Augsburg.
How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 2.00 for RB Leipzig and 2.80 for SV Elversberg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for RB Leipzig and ten for SV Elversberg at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.