FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes FC Augsburg the pick at 42% for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
FC Augsburg host Union Berlin on 24 October 2026 at WWK Arena, Augsburg. FC Augsburg are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 7 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as FC Augsburg - Union Berlin. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Augsburg: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 50 conceded in 27 matches, 1.52 and 1.85 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.7 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +4.
Union Berlin: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 54 conceded in 30 matches, 1.33 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Augsburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 17th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDLD | DWWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 13 | 3 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 27 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.52 / 1.85 | 1.33 / 1.8 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.37 | 1.13 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.7 | 35.3 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 34% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 3 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): FC Augsburg three wins, Union Berlin two wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg on 16 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.57 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Augsburg 42.7 versus Union Berlin 35.3, a gap of 7.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Union Berlin carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 68%.
- First goal: Leans FC Augsburg's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards FC Augsburg at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Union Berlin's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Augsburg's way, especially at WWK Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Augsburg or Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% FC Augsburg, 23% the draw and 34% Union Berlin.
When and where is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
24 October 2026 at WWK Arena, Augsburg, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg on 16 May 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg have taken 3 points from their last five (LDDLD), Union Berlin 7 from theirs (DWWLL). Most recently FC Augsburg took a 3-4 defeat away at SV Elversberg and Union Berlin a 0-0 draw at home to Borussia Dortmund.
How many goals are expected in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 2.40 for FC Augsburg and 2.00 for Union Berlin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 68%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for FC Augsburg and twelve for Union Berlin at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.