FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen match summary and prediction — Bundesliga
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 the pick at 57% for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Werder Bremen travel to FSV Mainz 05 on 24 October 2026 at MEWA Arena, Mainz. FSV Mainz 05 are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 7 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as FSV Mainz 05 - Werder Bremen. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FSV Mainz 05: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 51 conceded in 37 matches, 1.32 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Werder Bremen: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 54 conceded in 30 matches, 1.07 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.0 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWL | DDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 10 | 8 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 37 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.32 / 1.38 | 1.07 / 1.8 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.0 | 55.0 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 18 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 19% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 2 | 4 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): FSV Mainz 05 two wins, Werder Bremen four wins, two draws — an edge to Werder Bremen.
- Most recent meeting: Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 on 15 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.38 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: FSV Mainz 05 56.0 versus Werder Bremen 55.0, a gap of 1.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Werder Bremen carry the heavier absentee list, 18 players to eight.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans FSV Mainz 05's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards FSV Mainz 05 at 57%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. FSV Mainz 05's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FSV Mainz 05's way, especially at MEWA Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FSV Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% FSV Mainz 05, 24% the draw and 19% Werder Bremen.
When and where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen being played?
24 October 2026 at MEWA Arena, Mainz, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWWL), Werder Bremen 6 from theirs (DDLWD). Most recently FSV Mainz 05 took a 1-0 win away at FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen a 2-2 draw at home to SC Paderborn 07.
How many goals are expected in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.20 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.00 for Werder Bremen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for FSV Mainz 05 and 18 for Werder Bremen at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.