SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV match summary and prediction — Bundesliga
Our model makes SC Paderborn 07 the pick at 50% for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
SC Paderborn 07 face Hamburger SV on 24 October 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. SC Paderborn 07 are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 7 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as SC Paderborn 07 - Hamburger SV. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
SC Paderborn 07: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 24 conceded in 16 matches, 1.75 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.3 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -4.
Hamburger SV: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 50 conceded in 30 matches, 1.2 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | SC Paderborn 07 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWWL | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.75 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.81 | 1.1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.3 | 52.8 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: SC Paderborn 07 37.3 versus Hamburger SV 52.8, a gap of 15.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: SC Paderborn 07 carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans SC Paderborn 07's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to SC Paderborn 07 at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts SC Paderborn 07's way, especially at Home Deluxe Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: SC Paderborn 07 or Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% SC Paderborn 07, 23% the draw and 27% Hamburger SV.
When and where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV being played?
24 October 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Have SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 have taken 7 points from their last five (DLWWL), Hamburger SV 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently SC Paderborn 07 took a 2-2 draw away at Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV a 1-0 win at home to VfB Stuttgart.
How many goals are expected in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.20 for Hamburger SV. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for SC Paderborn 07 and four for Hamburger SV at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.