Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund match summary and prediction — Bundesliga
Our model makes Bayern München the pick at 77% for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bayern München face Borussia Dortmund on 31 October 2026 at Allianz Arena, Munich. Bayern München are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 77%. This matchday 8 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bayern München: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 4 conceded in six matches, 3.33 and 0.67 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 73.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +19.
Borussia Dortmund: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 3.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +19 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWD | WWWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 20 / 8 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 3.33 / 0.67 | 3.0 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.67 | 3.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 73.1 | 63.7 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 77% | 10% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Bayern München two wins, Borussia Dortmund none wins, two draws — an edge to Bayern München.
- Most recent meeting: Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München on 28 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bayern München 73.1 versus Borussia Dortmund 63.7, a gap of 9.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.80, over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Bayern München's way at 73%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Bayern München at 77%, a gap of 64 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Bayern München's way, especially at Allianz Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bayern München or Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern München, with an implied win probability of roughly 77%. The full split is 77% Bayern München, 13% the draw and 10% Borussia Dortmund.
When and where is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
31 October 2026 at Allianz Arena, Munich, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München on 28 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern München have taken 11 points from their last five (WWDWD), Borussia Dortmund 10 from theirs (WWWDL). Most recently Bayern München took a 6-1 win at home to 1. FC Magdeburg and Borussia Dortmund a 3-2 win at home to Werder Bremen.
How many goals are expected in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.80 — 3.20 for Bayern München and 2.60 for Borussia Dortmund. It rates over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Bayern München and eight for Borussia Dortmund at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.