Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: match summary, form and prediction
VfB Stuttgart travel to Bayer Leverkusen needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 15th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
Bayer Leverkusen face VfB Stuttgart on 31 October 2026 at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 8 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Bayer Leverkusen - VfB Stuttgart. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bayer Leverkusen: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (93 scored and 74 conceded in 51 matches, 1.82 and 1.45 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
VfB Stuttgart: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (83 scored and 62 conceded in 43 matches, 1.93 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -3. For a club of VfB Stuttgart's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 15th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWW | WLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 6 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 51 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.82 / 1.45 | 1.93 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.67 | 1.79 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.3 | 34.2 |
| Players unavailable | 14 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 20% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 2 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Bayer Leverkusen two wins, VfB Stuttgart two wins, four draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen on 09 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in six of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bayer Leverkusen 59.3 versus VfB Stuttgart 34.2, a gap of 25.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: VfB Stuttgart are 15th with a goal difference of -3 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans Bayer Leverkusen's way at 66%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Bayer Leverkusen at 64%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. Bayer Leverkusen's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Bayer Leverkusen's way, especially at BayArena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.