Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Union Berlin the pick at 46% for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
1. FC Köln travel to Union Berlin on 1 November 2026 at An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Union Berlin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 8 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Union Berlin - 1. FC Köln. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Union Berlin: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 54 conceded in 30 matches, 1.33 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.7 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -12.
1. FC Köln: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 41 conceded in 20 matches, 1.3 and 2.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.9 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Union Berlin | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -12 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDWW | WDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 6 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 30 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.33 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 2.05 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.13 | 0.7 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.7 | 40.9 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Union Berlin none wins, 1. FC Köln one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: 1. FC Köln 5-0 Union Berlin on 27 October 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Union Berlin 38.7 versus 1. FC Köln 40.9, a gap of 2.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans Union Berlin's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Union Berlin at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. 1. FC Köln's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Union Berlin's way, especially at An der Alten Försterei.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Union Berlin or 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Union Berlin, 25% the draw and 29% 1. FC Köln.
When and where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln being played?
1 November 2026 at An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln 5-0 Union Berlin on 27 October 2026.
What is the recent form of Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have taken 8 points from their last five (LDDWW), 1. FC Köln 8 from theirs (WDLWD). Most recently Union Berlin took a 0-5 defeat away at 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Köln a 5-0 win at home to Union Berlin.
How many goals are expected in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Union Berlin and 1.60 for 1. FC Köln. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 65%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Union Berlin and twelve for 1. FC Köln at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.