FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes RB Leipzig the pick at 52% for FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Schalke 04 host RB Leipzig on 31 October 2026 at VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen. RB Leipzig are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 8 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as FC Schalke 04 - RB Leipzig. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Schalke 04: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 22 conceded in 16 matches, 1.69 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.9 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -3.
RB Leipzig: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 38 conceded in 30 matches, 2.0 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.2 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLW | WWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 5 | 9 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.69 / 1.38 | 2.0 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.81 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.9 | 57.2 |
| Players unavailable | 14 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 21% | 52% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): FC Schalke 04 none wins, RB Leipzig two wins, none draws — an edge to RB Leipzig.
- Most recent meeting: RB Leipzig 4-2 FC Schalke 04 on 27 May 2023.
- Head-to-head goals: 6.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Schalke 04 40.9 versus RB Leipzig 57.2, a gap of 16.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: FC Schalke 04 carry the heavier absentee list, 14 players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans RB Leipzig's way at 65%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to RB Leipzig at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. RB Leipzig's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Schalke 04 or RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 21% FC Schalke 04, 28% the draw and 52% RB Leipzig.
When and where is FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig being played?
31 October 2026 at VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig 4-2 FC Schalke 04 on 27 May 2023.
What is the recent form of FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig?
FC Schalke 04 have taken 4 points from their last five (LDLLW), RB Leipzig 9 from theirs (WWLLW). Most recently FC Schalke 04 took a 0-2 defeat away at Dynamo Dresden and RB Leipzig a 2-1 win away at Rot-Weiß Essen.
How many goals are expected in FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 0.80 for FC Schalke 04 and 2.60 for RB Leipzig. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 14 players unavailable for FC Schalke 04 and six for RB Leipzig at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.