SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 the pick at 47% for SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
SV Elversberg face FSV Mainz 05 on 30 October 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg. FSV Mainz 05 are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 8 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as SV Elversberg - FSV Mainz 05. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
SV Elversberg: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 22 conceded in 17 matches, 1.88 and 1.29 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -3.
FSV Mainz 05: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 51 conceded in 37 matches, 1.32 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | SV Elversberg | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLD | LWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 10 | 13 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 37 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.88 / 1.29 | 1.32 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.71 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.6 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 47% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: SV Elversberg 37.6 versus FSV Mainz 05 45.8, a gap of 8.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans FSV Mainz 05's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to FSV Mainz 05 at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. FSV Mainz 05's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: SV Elversberg or FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 29% SV Elversberg, 23% the draw and 47% FSV Mainz 05.
When and where is SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
30 October 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Have SV Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05 met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of SV Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05?
SV Elversberg have taken 4 points from their last five (LWLLD), FSV Mainz 05 9 from theirs (LWLWW). Most recently SV Elversberg took a 0-4 defeat away at RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 a 2-3 defeat at home to Werder Bremen.
How many goals are expected in SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 1.80 for SV Elversberg and 2.20 for FSV Mainz 05. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.