RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes RB Leipzig the pick at 61% for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Augsburg travel to RB Leipzig on 7 November 2026 at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. RB Leipzig are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This matchday 9 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as RB Leipzig - FC Augsburg. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
RB Leipzig: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 38 conceded in 30 matches, 2.0 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +11.
FC Augsburg: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 50 conceded in 27 matches, 1.52 and 1.85 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.4 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 10th |
| Goal difference | +11 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLL | LWDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 11 | 11 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 30 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.0 / 1.27 | 1.52 / 1.85 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.0 | 1.37 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.8 | 32.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 17% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 4 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): RB Leipzig four wins, FC Augsburg none wins, three draws — an edge to RB Leipzig.
- Most recent meeting: RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg on 07 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.86 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: RB Leipzig 57.8 versus FC Augsburg 32.4, a gap of 25.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.20, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans RB Leipzig's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards RB Leipzig at 61%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts RB Leipzig's way, especially at Red Bull Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: RB Leipzig or FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% RB Leipzig, 21% the draw and 17% FC Augsburg.
When and where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
7 November 2026 at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg on 07 March 2026.
What is the recent form of RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have taken 9 points from their last five (WWWLL), FC Augsburg 5 from theirs (LWDLD). Most recently RB Leipzig took a 2-0 win away at FC Schalke 04 and FC Augsburg a 1-2 defeat at home to SC Freiburg.
How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.20 — 2.80 for RB Leipzig and 2.40 for FC Augsburg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.