VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen — form, head-to-head and match prediction
VfB Stuttgart host Werder Bremen with a season still short of where it should be — 11th in Bundesliga and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
VfB Stuttgart host Werder Bremen on 7 November 2026 at MHPArena, Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This matchday 9 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as VfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
VfB Stuttgart: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (83 scored and 62 conceded in 43 matches, 1.93 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1. For a club of VfB Stuttgart's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Werder Bremen: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 54 conceded in 30 matches, 1.07 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLDL | WLWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 7 | 11 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 43 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.93 / 1.44 | 1.07 / 1.8 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.79 | 0.97 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.8 | 62.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 15% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 2 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): VfB Stuttgart two wins, Werder Bremen three wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen on 26 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: VfB Stuttgart 44.8 versus Werder Bremen 62.4, a gap of 17.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: VfB Stuttgart are 11th with a goal difference of -1 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans VfB Stuttgart's way at 70%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards VfB Stuttgart at 67%, a gap of 50 percentage points to the next outcome. Werder Bremen's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts VfB Stuttgart's way, especially at MHPArena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: VfB Stuttgart or Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% VfB Stuttgart, 18% the draw and 15% Werder Bremen.
When and where is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen being played?
7 November 2026 at MHPArena, Stuttgart, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart have taken 7 points from their last five (WWLDL), Werder Bremen 8 from theirs (WLWDD). Most recently VfB Stuttgart took a 4-2 win away at Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen a 2-0 win at home to 1899 Hoffenheim.
How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 2.20 for VfB Stuttgart and 2.20 for Werder Bremen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.