SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes SC Freiburg the pick at 64% for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
SC Freiburg host Union Berlin on 8 November 2026 at Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg. SC Freiburg are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 9 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as SC Freiburg - Union Berlin. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
SC Freiburg: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (66 scored and 65 conceded in 45 matches, 1.47 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.3 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +8.
Union Berlin: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 54 conceded in 30 matches, 1.33 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.0 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -12.
Side by side
| Statistic | SC Freiburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 16th |
| Goal difference | +8 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLL | DLDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 11 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 45 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.47 / 1.44 | 1.33 / 1.8 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.3 | 42.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 13% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 1 | 4 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): SC Freiburg one win, Union Berlin four wins, three draws — an edge to Union Berlin.
- Most recent meeting: SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin on 15 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: SC Freiburg 50.3 versus Union Berlin 42.0, a gap of 8.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans SC Freiburg's way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards SC Freiburg at 64%, a gap of 41 percentage points to the next outcome. SC Freiburg's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts SC Freiburg's way, especially at Europa-Park Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: SC Freiburg or Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% SC Freiburg, 23% the draw and 13% Union Berlin.
When and where is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin being played?
8 November 2026 at Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg have taken 6 points from their last five (WWLLL), Union Berlin 6 from theirs (DLDDW). Most recently SC Freiburg took a 2-1 win away at FC Augsburg and Union Berlin a 1-1 draw at home to 1. FC Köln.
How many goals are expected in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.40 for SC Freiburg and 0.60 for Union Berlin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.