FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München match summary and prediction — Bundesliga
Our model makes Bayern München the pick at 77% for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bayern München travel to FSV Mainz 05 on 7 November 2026 at Mewa Arena, Mainz. Bayern München are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 77%. This matchday 9 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as FSV Mainz 05 - Bayern München. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FSV Mainz 05: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 51 conceded in 37 matches, 1.32 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of 0.
Bayern München: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (174 scored and 60 conceded in 54 matches, 3.22 and 1.11 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.4 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +19.
Side by side
| Statistic | FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 1st |
| Goal difference | 0 | +19 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWL | DWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 13 | 19 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 37 | 54 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.32 / 1.38 | 3.22 / 1.11 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.35 | 2.56 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 66.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 9% | 77% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): FSV Mainz 05 one win, Bayern München two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München on 25 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: FSV Mainz 05 45.0 versus Bayern München 66.4, a gap of 21.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.40, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Bayern München's way at 78%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Bayern München at 77%, a gap of 63 percentage points to the next outcome. Bayern München's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FSV Mainz 05 or Bayern München?
Bayern München, with an implied win probability of roughly 77%. The full split is 9% FSV Mainz 05, 14% the draw and 77% Bayern München.
When and where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München being played?
7 November 2026 at Mewa Arena, Mainz, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München?
FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München on 25 April 2026.
What is the recent form of FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München?
FSV Mainz 05 have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLWL), Bayern München 11 from theirs (DWWDW). Most recently FSV Mainz 05 took a 1-4 defeat away at SV Elversberg and Bayern München a 2-2 draw at home to Borussia Dortmund.
How many goals are expected in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.40 — 1.80 for FSV Mainz 05 and 3.60 for Bayern München. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.