1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the pick at 67% for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
1. FC Köln host Bayer Leverkusen on 8 November 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. Bayer Leverkusen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This matchday 9 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as 1. FC Köln - Bayer Leverkusen. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
1. FC Köln: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 41 conceded in 20 matches, 1.3 and 2.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.9 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -3.
Bayer Leverkusen: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (93 scored and 74 conceded in 51 matches, 1.82 and 1.45 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | 1. FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDLW | LWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 3 | 11 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 51 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.3 / 2.05 | 1.82 / 1.45 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.7 | 1.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.9 | 55.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 15% | 67% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): 1. FC Köln none wins, Bayer Leverkusen two wins, none draws — an edge to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Most recent meeting: 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen on 25 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: 1. FC Köln 40.9 versus Bayer Leverkusen 55.5, a gap of 14.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Bayer Leverkusen's way at 71%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Bayer Leverkusen at 67%, a gap of 48 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: 1. FC Köln or Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 15% 1. FC Köln, 19% the draw and 67% Bayer Leverkusen.
When and where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
8 November 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen on 25 April 2026.
What is the recent form of 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Köln have taken 8 points from their last five (DWDLW), Bayer Leverkusen 9 from theirs (LWLWW). Most recently 1. FC Köln took a 1-1 draw away at Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen a 2-4 defeat at home to VfB Stuttgart.
How many goals are expected in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.60 for 1. FC Köln and 2.20 for Bayer Leverkusen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.