Rio Ave vs Estrela: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Rio Ave the pick at 53% for Rio Ave vs Estrela. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Rio Ave host Estrela on 14 September 2026. Rio Ave are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 6 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Rio Ave - Estrela. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rio Ave: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 29 conceded in 15 matches, 0.87 and 1.93 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -9.
Estrela: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 1.06 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rio Ave | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -9 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WDWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 11 | 11 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.87 / 1.93 | 1.06 / 1.59 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.0 | 0.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.8 | 55.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 11% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Rio Ave 32.8 versus Estrela 55.5, a gap of 22.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 74%.
- First goal: Leans Rio Ave's way at 62%.
The call
The model tilts to Rio Ave at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Estrela's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rio Ave or Estrela?
Rio Ave, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Rio Ave, 36% the draw and 11% Estrela.
When and where is Rio Ave vs Estrela being played?
14 September 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Rio Ave and Estrela?
Rio Ave 2-1 Estrela on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Rio Ave and Estrela?
Rio Ave have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Estrela 9 from theirs (WDWDD). Most recently Rio Ave took a 0-4 defeat away at Santa Clara and Estrela a 2-1 win at home to SC Braga.
How many goals are expected in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Rio Ave and 1.00 for Estrela. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 74%, so its call is yes.