Alverca vs Arouca: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Alverca and Arouca on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Alverca face Arouca on 24 October 2026 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo. Arouca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 9 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Alverca - Arouca. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Alverca: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 0.94 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1.
Arouca: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 27 conceded in 19 matches, 1.63 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWL | WWDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.94 / 1.59 | 1.63 / 1.42 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.94 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.6 | 52.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 38% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Alverca 58.6 versus Arouca 52.7, a gap of 5.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Arouca's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Arouca is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alverca or Arouca?
Arouca, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 36% Alverca, 26% the draw and 38% Arouca.
When and where is Alverca vs Arouca being played?
24 October 2026 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Alverca and Arouca?
Alverca 2-1 Arouca on 24 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Alverca and Arouca?
Alverca have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWWL), Arouca 8 from theirs (WWDLD). Most recently Alverca took a 0-2 defeat away at Tondela and Arouca a 4-3 win away at CF Os Belenenses.
How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Arouca?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 0.80 for Alverca and 1.80 for Arouca. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.