Estrela vs Casa Pia: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Estrela the pick at 41% for Estrela vs Casa Pia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Estrela host Casa Pia on 24 October 2026 at Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora. Estrela are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 9 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Estrela - Casa Pia. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Estrela: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 1.06 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -1.
Casa Pia: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 22 conceded in 19 matches, 0.89 and 1.16 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | Estrela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDW | WLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.06 / 1.59 | 0.89 / 1.16 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.71 | 1.21 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.4 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Estrela 41.4 versus Casa Pia 34.8, a gap of 6.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Estrela's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Estrela at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Estrela's way, especially at Estadio Jose Gomes.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Estrela or Casa Pia?
Estrela, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Estrela, 32% the draw and 27% Casa Pia.
When and where is Estrela vs Casa Pia being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Estrela and Casa Pia?
Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia on 20 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Estrela and Casa Pia?
Estrela have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLDW), Casa Pia 7 from theirs (WLWLD). Most recently Estrela took a 2-1 win away at Fazendense and Casa Pia a 1-0 win away at Alpendorada.
How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 2.20 for Estrela and 0.60 for Casa Pia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.