Arouca vs Nacional: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Arouca the pick at 58% for Arouca vs Nacional. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Arouca face Nacional on 1 November 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca. Arouca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 10 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Arouca - Nacional. Kick-off is 15:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Arouca: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 27 conceded in 19 matches, 1.63 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.9 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +5.
Nacional: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 18 conceded in 16 matches, 1.06 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.0 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Arouca | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 15th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDL | WLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 4 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.63 / 1.42 | 1.06 / 1.12 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.42 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.9 | 33.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 16% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Arouca 52.9 versus Nacional 33.0, a gap of 19.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Arouca's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Arouca at 58%, a gap of 31 percentage points to the next outcome. Arouca's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Arouca's way, especially at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Arouca or Nacional?
Arouca, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Arouca, 26% the draw and 16% Nacional.
When and where is Arouca vs Nacional being played?
1 November 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Arouca and Nacional?
Arouca 3-0 Nacional on 21 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Arouca and Nacional?
Arouca have taken 10 points from their last five (WWWDL), Nacional 3 from theirs (WLLLL). Most recently Arouca took a 1-0 win away at Alverca and Nacional a 1-0 win at home to SC Braga.
How many goals are expected in Arouca vs Nacional?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.40 for Arouca and 1.20 for Nacional. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.