Benfica vs Alverca: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Benfica the pick at 82% for Benfica vs Alverca. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Benfica face Alverca on 2 November 2026 at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. Benfica are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 82%. This matchday 10 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Benfica - Alverca. Kick-off is 20:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Benfica: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 41 conceded in 41 matches, 1.54 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +18.
Alverca: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 0.94 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.0 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Benfica | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 8th |
| Goal difference | +18 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | LLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 16 / 4 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 41 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.54 / 1.0 | 0.94 / 1.59 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.73 | 0.94 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 69.5 | 55.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 82% | 4% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Benfica 69.5 versus Alverca 55.0, a gap of 14.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Benfica's way at 81%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Benfica at 82%, a gap of 67 percentage points to the next outcome. Benfica's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Benfica's way, especially at Estádio da Luz.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Benfica or Alverca?
Benfica, with an implied win probability of roughly 82%. The full split is 82% Benfica, 14% the draw and 4% Alverca.
When and where is Benfica vs Alverca being played?
2 November 2026 at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Benfica and Alverca?
Benfica 2-1 Alverca on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Benfica and Alverca?
Benfica have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Alverca 9 from theirs (LLWWW). Most recently Benfica took a 4-1 win at home to GIL Vicente and Alverca a 0-1 defeat at home to Arouca.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Alverca?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 3.20 for Benfica and 0.80 for Alverca. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.