Casa Pia vs Sporting CP match summary and prediction — Primeira Liga
Our model makes Sporting CP the pick at 68% for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Casa Pia host Sporting CP on 30 October 2026. Sporting CP are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 68%. This matchday 10 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Casa Pia - Sporting CP. Kick-off is 20:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Casa Pia: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 22 conceded in 19 matches, 0.89 and 1.16 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.3 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -12.
Sporting CP: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (88 scored and 45 conceded in 40 matches, 2.2 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Casa Pia | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -12 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWL | LLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 10 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 40 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.89 / 1.16 | 2.2 / 1.12 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.21 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.3 | 54.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 10% | 68% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Casa Pia 45.3 versus Sporting CP 54.2, a gap of 8.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Sporting CP's way at 70%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Sporting CP at 68%, a gap of 47 percentage points to the next outcome. Casa Pia's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Casa Pia or Sporting CP?
Sporting CP, with an implied win probability of roughly 68%. The full split is 10% Casa Pia, 21% the draw and 68% Sporting CP.
When and where is Casa Pia vs Sporting CP being played?
30 October 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
Have Casa Pia and Sporting CP met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Casa Pia and Sporting CP?
Casa Pia have taken 9 points from their last five (WWLWL), Sporting CP 7 from theirs (LLWWD). Most recently Casa Pia took a 2-0 win away at Estrela and Sporting CP a 1-2 defeat at home to Academico Viseu.
How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.00 for Casa Pia and 2.20 for Sporting CP. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.