FC Porto vs Estoril: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes FC Porto the pick at 67% for FC Porto vs Estoril. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Estoril travel to FC Porto on 31 October 2026 at Estádio do Dragão, Porto. FC Porto are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This matchday 10 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as FC Porto - Estoril. Kick-off is 20:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Porto: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 24 conceded in 29 matches, 1.66 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 79.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +17.
Estoril: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 27 conceded in 16 matches, 1.25 and 1.69 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.8 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Porto | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 18th |
| Goal difference | +17 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLW | LDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 4 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 29 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.66 / 0.83 | 1.25 / 1.69 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.07 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 79.2 | 25.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Porto 79.2 versus Estoril 25.8, a gap of 53.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 17 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans FC Porto's way at 71%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards FC Porto at 67%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. FC Porto's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Porto's way, especially at Estádio do Dragão.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Porto or Estoril?
FC Porto, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% FC Porto, 22% the draw and 11% Estoril.
When and where is FC Porto vs Estoril being played?
31 October 2026 at Estádio do Dragão, Porto, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Porto and Estoril?
Estoril 1-3 FC Porto on 12 April 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Porto and Estoril?
FC Porto have taken 9 points from their last five (WWLLW), Estoril 1 from theirs (LDLLL). Most recently FC Porto took a 1-0 win at home to Academico Viseu and Estoril a 1-3 defeat at home to Moreirense.
How many goals are expected in FC Porto vs Estoril?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.80 for FC Porto and 0.60 for Estoril. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.