Moreirense vs Estrela: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Moreirense the pick at 39% for Moreirense vs Estrela. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Moreirense face Estrela on 31 October 2026 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães. Moreirense are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 10 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Moreirense - Estrela. Kick-off is 15:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Moreirense: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 22 conceded in 16 matches, 0.81 and 1.38 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.1 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -5.
Estrela: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 1.06 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Moreirense | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -5 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDW | LWLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.81 / 1.38 | 1.06 / 1.59 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.12 | 0.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 47.1 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Moreirense 47.1 versus Estrela 37.6, a gap of 9.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Moreirense's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Moreirense at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Moreirense's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Moreirense's way, especially at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Moreirense or Estrela?
Moreirense, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 39% Moreirense, 28% the draw and 33% Estrela.
When and where is Moreirense vs Estrela being played?
31 October 2026 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Moreirense and Estrela?
Moreirense 3-2 Estrela on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Moreirense and Estrela?
Moreirense have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLDW), Estrela 4 from theirs (LWLLD). Most recently Moreirense took a 3-1 win away at Estoril and Estrela a 0-2 defeat at home to Casa Pia.
How many goals are expected in Moreirense vs Estrela?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.80 for Moreirense and 1.80 for Estrela. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.