Alverca vs Casa Pia — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Alverca the pick at 42% for Alverca vs Casa Pia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Alverca face Casa Pia on 7 November 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo. Alverca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 11 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Alverca - Casa Pia. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Alverca: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 0.94 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.8 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -1.
Casa Pia: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 22 conceded in 19 matches, 0.89 and 1.16 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.5 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWW | LWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 5 | 5 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.94 / 1.59 | 0.89 / 1.16 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.94 | 1.21 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 54.8 | 41.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Alverca 54.8 versus Casa Pia 41.5, a gap of 13.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Alverca's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Alverca at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Casa Pia's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Alverca's way, especially at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alverca or Casa Pia?
Alverca, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Alverca, 29% the draw and 30% Casa Pia.
When and where is Alverca vs Casa Pia being played?
7 November 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Alverca and Casa Pia?
Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia on 12 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Alverca and Casa Pia?
Alverca have taken 6 points from their last five (LLLWW), Casa Pia 9 from theirs (LWWLW). Most recently Alverca took a 0-1 defeat away at Benfica and Casa Pia a 0-2 defeat at home to Sporting CP.
How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.80 for Alverca and 0.60 for Casa Pia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.