Estrela vs Benfica — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Benfica the pick at 69% for Estrela vs Benfica. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Estrela host Benfica on 8 November 2026. Benfica are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 11 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Estrela - Benfica. Kick-off is 20:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Estrela: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 12 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -4.
Benfica: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 6 conceded in nine matches, 3.33 and 0.67 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +19.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Estrela | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -4 | +19 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 8 | 15 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.67 / 2.0 | 3.33 / 0.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 2.78 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.3 | 69.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 12% | 69% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Estrela 27.3 versus Benfica 69.8, a gap of 42.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Benfica's way at 71%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Benfica at 69%, a gap of 49 percentage points to the next outcome. Benfica's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Estrela or Benfica?
Benfica, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 12% Estrela, 20% the draw and 69% Benfica.
When and where is Estrela vs Benfica being played?
8 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Estrela and Benfica?
Benfica 4-0 Estrela on 25 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Estrela and Benfica?
Estrela have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Benfica 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Estrela took a 1-2 defeat away at Moreirense and Benfica a 1-0 win at home to Alverca.
How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Benfica?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 1.60 for Estrela and 2.80 for Benfica. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.