Famalicao vs Arouca: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Arouca the pick at 39% for Famalicao vs Arouca. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Arouca travel to Famalicao on 6 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao. Arouca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 11 fixture in Primeira Liga is listed as Famalicao - Arouca. Kick-off is 20:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Famalicao: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 17 conceded in 15 matches, 1.33 and 1.13 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of 0.
Arouca: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 27 conceded in 19 matches, 1.63 and 1.42 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Famalicao | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 5th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLL | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 9 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.33 / 1.13 | 1.63 / 1.42 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.87 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.3 | 59.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 39% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Famalicao 48.3 versus Arouca 59.8, a gap of 11.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Arouca's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Arouca at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Arouca's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Famalicao or Arouca?
Arouca, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 32% Famalicao, 29% the draw and 39% Arouca.
When and where is Famalicao vs Arouca being played?
6 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao, kick-off 20:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Famalicao and Arouca?
Famalicao 1-0 Arouca on 06 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Famalicao and Arouca?
Famalicao have taken 4 points from their last five (LDWLL), Arouca 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently Famalicao took a 0-3 defeat away at SC Braga and Arouca a 1-0 win at home to Nacional.
How many goals are expected in Famalicao vs Arouca?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.60 for Famalicao and 1.40 for Arouca. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.