VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth match summary and prediction — 2. Bundesliga
Our model makes a draw the pick at 53% for VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
VfL Bochum host SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 12 September 2026 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 53%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in 2. Bundesliga is listed as VfL Bochum - SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
VfL Bochum: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 22 conceded in 15 matches, 1.53 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of 0.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 23 conceded in 18 matches, 1.39 and 1.28 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | VfL Bochum | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 12th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWL | LWLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 8 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.53 / 1.47 | 1.39 / 1.28 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.4 | 1.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 37.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 23% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: VfL Bochum 45.0 versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37.8, a gap of 7.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.30, over 2.5 goals at 13% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans SpVgg Greuther Fürth's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. VfL Bochum's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: VfL Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Neither side. Our model splits it 24% VfL Bochum, 53% the draw and 23% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
12 September 2026 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Bochum have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWWL), SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4 from theirs (LWLLD). Most recently VfL Bochum took a 2-1 win away at Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 0-1 defeat at home to 1. FC Heidenheim.
How many goals are expected in VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.30 — 0.80 for VfL Bochum and 0.50 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. It rates over 2.5 goals at 13%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.