1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
1. FC Heidenheim host Holstein Kiel on 13 September 2026 at Voith-Arena, Heidenheim. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in 2. Bundesliga is listed as 1. FC Heidenheim - Holstein Kiel. Kick-off is 11:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
1. FC Heidenheim: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 66 conceded in 30 matches, 1.17 and 2.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Holstein Kiel: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 27 conceded in 16 matches, 1.31 and 1.69 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | 1. FC Heidenheim | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 16th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLL | DLWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 16 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 30 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.17 / 2.2 | 1.31 / 1.69 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.7 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.2 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 15% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): 1. FC Heidenheim one win, Holstein Kiel one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel on 16 March 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim 55.2 versus Holstein Kiel 34.5, a gap of 20.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 17% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans 1. FC Heidenheim's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: 1. FC Heidenheim or Holstein Kiel?
Neither side. Our model splits it 37% 1. FC Heidenheim, 48% the draw and 15% Holstein Kiel, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel being played?
13 September 2026 at Voith-Arena, Heidenheim, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel on 16 March 2025.
What is the recent form of 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Heidenheim have taken 6 points from their last five (WWLLL), Holstein Kiel 6 from theirs (DLWDD). Most recently 1. FC Heidenheim took a 1-0 win away at SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel a 2-2 draw at home to 1. FC Nürnberg.
How many goals are expected in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.60 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.60 for Holstein Kiel. It rates over 2.5 goals at 17%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.