SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
FC St. Pauli travel to SV Darmstadt 98 on 23 October 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 9 fixture in 2. Bundesliga is listed as SV Darmstadt 98 - FC St. Pauli. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
SV Darmstadt 98: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 1.59 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.5 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -10.
FC St. Pauli: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 56 conceded in 32 matches, 0.75 and 1.75 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | SV Darmstadt 98 | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -10 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLW | DWDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 11 | 6 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.59 / 1.59 | 0.75 / 1.75 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.12 | 0.72 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.5 | 55.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 16% | 34% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 42.5 versus FC St. Pauli 55.5, a gap of 13.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 39%.
- First goal: Leans FC St. Pauli's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: SV Darmstadt 98 or FC St. Pauli?
Neither side. Our model splits it 16% SV Darmstadt 98, 49% the draw and 34% FC St. Pauli, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
23 October 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWLW), FC St. Pauli 9 from theirs (DWDDW). Most recently SV Darmstadt 98 took a 0-4 defeat away at Karlsruher SC and FC St. Pauli a 1-1 draw away at Hannover 96.
How many goals are expected in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.80 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.80 for FC St. Pauli. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 39%, so its call is no.