Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Hertha BSC the pick at 42% for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Hertha BSC face Arminia Bielefeld on 24 October 2026 at Olympiastadion, Berlin. Hertha BSC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 9 fixture in 2. Bundesliga is listed as Hertha BSC - Arminia Bielefeld. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Hertha BSC: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 24 conceded in 16 matches, 1.5 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +11.
Arminia Bielefeld: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 25 conceded in 15 matches, 1.67 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.7 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Hertha BSC | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 8th |
| Goal difference | +11 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWW | WWDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.67 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.31 | 1.2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 71.1 | 51.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Hertha BSC none wins, Arminia Bielefeld one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC on 17 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Hertha BSC 71.1 versus Arminia Bielefeld 51.7, a gap of 19.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Hertha BSC's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Hertha BSC at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Hertha BSC's way, especially at Olympiastadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Hertha BSC or Arminia Bielefeld?
Hertha BSC, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Hertha BSC, 28% the draw and 30% Arminia Bielefeld.
When and where is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
24 October 2026 at Olympiastadion, Berlin, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Hertha BSC have taken 11 points from their last five (DWDWW), Arminia Bielefeld 8 from theirs (WWDDL). Most recently Hertha BSC took a 0-0 draw away at Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld a 2-1 win at home to VfL Osnabrück.
How many goals are expected in Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.80 for Hertha BSC and 2.40 for Arminia Bielefeld. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.