FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes 1. FC Nürnberg the pick at 42% for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
1. FC Nürnberg travel to FC St. Pauli on 1 November 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli Burger. 1. FC Nürnberg are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 10 fixture in 2. Bundesliga is listed as FC St. Pauli - 1. FC Nürnberg. Kick-off is 12:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC St. Pauli: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, four draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 56 conceded in 32 matches, 0.75 and 1.75 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
1. FC Nürnberg: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 19 conceded in 16 matches, 1.62 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.9 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC St. Pauli | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +2 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWDD | LLDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 10 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.75 / 1.75 | 1.62 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.72 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.5 | 53.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 42% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FC St. Pauli 55.5 versus 1. FC Nürnberg 53.9, a gap of 1.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans 1. FC Nürnberg's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards 1. FC Nürnberg at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. FC St. Pauli's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC St. Pauli or 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 32% FC St. Pauli, 26% the draw and 42% 1. FC Nürnberg.
When and where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
1 November 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli Burger, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Have FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC St. Pauli have taken 7 points from their last five (DDWDD), 1. FC Nürnberg 5 from theirs (LLDDW). Most recently FC St. Pauli took a 0-0 draw away at SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg a 2-5 defeat away at Bayer Leverkusen.
How many goals are expected in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.00 for FC St. Pauli and 1.80 for 1. FC Nürnberg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.