Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld match summary and prediction — 2. Bundesliga
Our model makes Holstein Kiel the pick at 42% for Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Arminia Bielefeld travel to Holstein Kiel on 7 November 2026 at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel. Holstein Kiel are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 11 fixture in 2. Bundesliga is listed as Holstein Kiel - Arminia Bielefeld. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Holstein Kiel: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 7 conceded in six matches, 1.33 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -2.
Arminia Bielefeld: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 1.5 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Holstein Kiel | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWDL | WLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 3 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.33 / 1.17 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.2 | 58.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Holstein Kiel 41.2 versus Arminia Bielefeld 58.6, a gap of 17.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Holstein Kiel's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Holstein Kiel at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Holstein Kiel's way, especially at Holstein-Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Holstein Kiel or Arminia Bielefeld?
Holstein Kiel, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Holstein Kiel, 25% the draw and 33% Arminia Bielefeld.
When and where is Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
7 November 2026 at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld?
Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Holstein Kiel on 23 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld?
Holstein Kiel have taken 5 points from their last five (LDWDL), Arminia Bielefeld 10 from theirs (WLWWD). Most recently Holstein Kiel took a 0-1 defeat away at SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld a 3-1 win at home to Eintracht Braunschweig.
How many goals are expected in Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Holstein Kiel and 1.60 for Arminia Bielefeld. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.